Any visitor of the site has access to the short-term tendencies forecast by our systems for the next days, daily updated for each analyzed stock. The second column of the table refers to the certainty (probability) associated to the predicted tendency, which is shown by our certainty gauges. Thus, it is easy to understand that our certainty gauges enable you to find every day the best buy or sell opportunities with one glance only:

Best buy:
Best sell:

Our systems also generate medium-term risk estimations, enabling you to obtain the best return at the least possible risk. For having access to the certainty levels and medium-term risk, it is, however, necessary to signup to our service. After signing up you will receive login and password that will grant you access to all information in the site. Then, you will see a table similar to the one below updated daily.

For an explanation of the remaining columns, visit the end of the page.

Date:  Aug-06-10   17:59:00
Short-term						Medium-term
Company	Forecasted Tendency	Certainty	Minimum Certainty:  recent G/L & Return	VAR (95% Prob.)  for tomorrow	Alert	Buy Risk	Return since 2003	Profitability since 2003	G/L since 2003	Recent Return	Recent Profitability	Recent G/L
BOVESPA:Embraer-EMBR3	undefined		0: inf & 8.5%  0.5: inf & 8.5%	4.8 %		HIGH	424.7%	58.9%	3.3	19.5%	100%	inf
BOVESPA:Eletropaulo-ELPL6	undefined		0: 0 & -3.2%  0.5: 0 & -3.2%	2.9 %		UP!	3605.4%	58.7%	4.7	-3.2%	0%	0
NYSE:IBM	LOW		0: 3 & 2.8%  0.7: inf & 0.7%	2.8 %		LOW	170.3%	50%	2.0	5.1%	33.3%	4
BOVESPA:Petrobras-PETR4	undefined		0: 8 & 4.2%  0.3: 8 & 4.2%  0.5: inf & 7.3%  0.7: inf & 7.3%	3.2 %		HIGH	3741.1%	67.9%	4.4	-0.7%	0%	0
BOVESPA:Telemar-TNLP4	undefined		0: 0 & -15.6%  0.5: 0 & -15.6%	4.3 %		UP!	1662.3%	58.3%	3.8	-7.6%	0%	0
BOVESPA:Vale do Rio Doce-VALE5	HIGH		0: 18 & 13.3%  0.3: 18 & 13.3%  0.5: inf & 14.5%  0.7: inf & 5.1%	2.8 %		LOW	474.8%	50.6%	2	4.7%	50%	2.7

The columns of the table are:

Forecasted Tendency : Tendency predicted by the system for the next days. It can be HIGH, LOW, or undefined.

Certainty : Indicates the certainty (or risk) associated to the predicted tendency in the first column. The highest the certainty, the least the risk associated to that prediction:

Forecasted Tendency	HIGH	undefined	LOW
High Certainty (Low Risk)
Medium Certainty (Medium Risk)
Low Certainty (High Risk)

Recent G/L & Return : G/L (explained below) and return obtained in the recent past, following the strategy of buying and selling stocks based on the two first columns. For example, 0.5: inf & 11.8% means that we obtained an infinite G/L and 11.8% return by buying and selling when the forecasted tendency was HIGH and LOW, respectively, at certainty levels higher than 0.5. Generally, the highest the minimum certainty allowed the highest the associated G/L, indicating less risk in the trades. The return, however, may vary. The link takes to the graphics page, for prices and returns obtained at various certainty levels in the short-term.

VAR (95% Prob.) : VAR (Value At Risk) for tomorrow. For example, a VAR of 2 % means that we can say with 95% confidence, that the price won't vary tomorrow more than 2% in the direction opposite to the forecasted tendency.

Alert : Alerts for events of very low probability, as for example, unexpected price variations of high intensity. Such events generally indicate important reversions in the price behavior of commodities. They can be of 4 types:

	Alert for low probability price rise.
	Alert for very low probability price rise.
	Alert for low probability price drop.
	Alert for very low probability price drop.

Buy Risk : Estimation of buying risk for a medium-term time horizon, obtained by the system based on models for tendency forecasting and return optimization capable of dynamic adaptation to market conditions. The estimations are computed from the information of the first two columns, for obtaining the best medium and long-term returns at minimum risk. LOW and HIGH estimations refer to the continuation of DOWN! and UP! estimations given in the past.

Return since 2003 : Compound return obtained by the system since January 2003, according to the chosen strategy. Generally that's the strategy that, historically, leads to the best profit probability at lowest risk. The link goes to the page containing the graphics of return and prices.

Profitability since 2003 : Percentage of medium-term trades that obtained a profit since January 2003, according to the strategy above.

G/L since 2003 : Parameter that indicates the relation between the average gain and loss obtained by the medium-term trades since January 2003. The bigger the parameter, the smaller the risk associated to the system. The value 'inf' stands for infinite and indicates that there were no losses during the considered period.

Recent Return : Compound return obtained by the system in the last 30 days. To calculate this parameter we consider only trades started during this period, or trades still in course.

Recent Profitability : Percentage of trades that obtained a profit in the last 30 days. To calculate this parameter we consider only trades started during this period, or trades still in course. The value '--' indicates that there were no trades in this period.

Recent G/L : Parameter that indicates the relation between the average gain and loss obtained by the trades in the last 30 days. To calculate this parameter we consider only trades started during this period, or trades still in course. The bigger the parameter, the smaller the risk associated to the system. The value 'inf' stands for infinite and indicates that there were no losses during the considered period. The value '--' indicates that there were no trades in this period.

To know more about the dynamic, complex and non-linear nature of Stock Markets, visit our advanced topics page.